What We Now Know

Week of 4/26/04
OSAMA'S NAVY SETS SAIL

As if we didn't have enough terrorism threats to worry about, it now appears al-Qaeda has a secret 15-ship "navy" it acquired from a Greek supplier over a period of several years. US intelligence experts think one or more of the ships were used to transport the explosives used in the deadly bombings of two American embassies in Africa and in the terrible nightclub blast in Bali. Since al-Qaeda's ships are ordinary merchant vessels registered under new names in different countries, they will be very difficult to identify and track. Unfortunately, the biggest danger posed by an al-Qaeda ship is not its ability to transport explosives or terrorists. The ship itself can be used as a giant bomb to wipe out a US port. If the port has a large LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) storage facility or a gasoline refinery, the secondary explosion could destroy much of the adjacent city. (The devastating crash of fuel-laden trains in North Korea provides a tragic and relevant example of the danger.)

The cities vulnerable to an attack by al-Qaeda's ships are not limited to our coasts. Due to our extensive network of navigable rivers, bin Laden could get a ship as far inland as Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, or even Kansas City. To make matters worse, even a small merchant vessel could carry enough shielding to prevent the detection of a stolen nuclear device or a radioactive dirty bomb.

In addition to having its own ships, it looks as if al-Qaeda plans to hijack a supertanker. Such a vessel would make an even bigger bomb than a freighter and create an environmental disaster. According to London-based Aegis Defense Services, in March 2003 about ten Islamic pirates boarded the oil tanker Dewi Madrim off the coast of Sumatra. Instead of the usual routine of robbing the crew and either stealing the cargo or making off with portable items of value, in this instance the pirates disconnected the ship's communication system, hooked up their own communications, and then spent over an hour learning how to steer the ship, run its engines, and use its electronic navigation equipment. When the pirates finally departed, they took the captain and his first officer with them. No ransom demands were received which indicates the pirates weren't after money.

More recently, another group of ten armed pirates--probably from the Abu Sayyaf terrorist organization--boarded an ocean-going tugboat in the Sulu Sea south of the Philippines. This time they took the ship's sophisticated navigation equipment in addition to its officers. Similar incidents are thought to have occurred throughout the region, but have been kept quiet by embarrassed ship owners and government officials. According to Singapore terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna, oil and chemical tankers have been the principal targets which suggests the hijackings were rehearsals for terrorist attacks.

Any modern merchant vessel used by terrorists will be extremely difficult to stop--even if it is detected and attacked a few miles from its destination. As we learned from the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989, large ships have such great momentum they can travel several miles even after their engines are stopped.

Considering what we now know about al-Qaeda's threat to our port cities, our advice last month to spend next October in the countryside seems very timely. Particularly since National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice recently said that the government believes al-Qaeda is so pleased with the outcome of its Madrid bombing, it plans to use the tactic again in the US just before our presidential election.