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GOOD NEIGHBORS, BAD ANCESTORS
I inherited an exporting
nation with a high savings rate and I'm leaving you an importing nation with
the industrial world's lowest saving rate. I inherited a nation that produced
more than it consumed and I'm leaving you a nation that consumes more than it
produces.
There was every reason for
my parents to borrow money - they were fighting a depression and Hitler. There
was no reason for my generation to borrow money (ie to pre-spend your money)
yet we have left an albatross of debt on your generation the magnitude of which
few understand.
1. My generation of politicians
has relentlessly and quietly encumbered your future earnings. Compare the federal
debt to our Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
| Year |
Debt |
GDP |
| 1981 |
$l Trillion |
$3 Trillion |
| 1986 |
$2 Trillion |
$4 Trillion |
| 1992 |
$4 Trillion |
$6 Trillion |
| 1997 |
$5.4 Trillion |
$7 Trillion |
In
times of great prosperity we have quietly increased the debt as a percentage
of the GDP. And every year we dramatically understate the yearly deficit by
offsetting the real deficit with money borrowed from some 150 federal trust
funds (such as the Social Security Trust fund). The total of the published annual
deficits for the last 10 years is approximately $1 trillion, but the actual
federal debt has increased over $4 trillion. In other words, the yearly deficit
is not the real amount we add to the debt for that year - it is considerably
understated. My generation has been lying to you.
2. We have dramatically
understated the total debt. The total amount of federal debt which we say we
are leaving your generation is $5.4 trillion, but that in no way represents
the costs of government services which my generation enjoyed but leave to your
generation to pay off.
There is a whole category
of "costs of the future" called "Unfunded Liabilities" which
I argue make the real federal debt that you have to pay off for services enjoyed
by my generation far closer to $14 - $17 trillion. Military retirement, federal
civil service retirement and Social Security payments are all owed for which
no (or inadequate) money has been set aside. There is a whole category of governmental
services which we enjoyed but left you the bill to pay. Cheating as well as
lying.
3. We have also told you
that the Social Security Trust fund was an asset, but it is not; there is nothing
there which will help you pay off future social security payments. The "Trust
Fund" owns nothing but U.S. government bonds which you will have to raise
the money to pay off. You will thus inherit a large amount of federal government
bonds that you will have to pay off yourselves. We don't even pay the interest
on those bonds but instead pay the interest by additional federal bonds that
you will also have to repay.
If we would have bought
German Bonds or stocks , there would be value in the fund, but we bought U.S.
Government bonds so we could add it to your credit card. Like the man who knew
seven languages but had nothing to say in any of them, it is all show. The Economist
magazine equated this action to leaving your generation a whole bunch of I.O.U.s
to pay off. So there you have it; cheating , lying and fraud.
The reason I am pleading
for mercy is that our hearts have been in the right place. We did it for the
best of causes. We have been "credit card liberals;" there has been
no program that we didn't consider worthy of funding and then putting on your
credit card. We knew what we wanted, but not what we could afford.
We have enriched our own
political careers by voting for a myriad of programs that we didn't pay for.
We get the political benefit, you get the bill. Great deal for me, terrible
deal for you. Sure the deficit is down this year, but watch it grow dramatically
as the baby boomers retire.
I have no idea what cause
or issue will ignite your generation. Every generation surprises the previous
generation, and you will decide what you will decide. But please consider the
question of intergenerational equity.
My generation lived in the
afterglow of the New Deal. We misread Keynes and thought that borrowing, because
it worked in the thirties and forties, could continue forever. Debt is economic
cocaine; it is very hard to stop borrowing once you started. Please understand,
I would have been voted out of office if I would have raised taxes or cut spending,
so I borrowed your future earnings. It was the perfect fraud.
Now I have confessed. I
am contrite. Every generation should pay for the government services it uses.
Robert Louis Stevenson said: "Sooner or later, we all sit down to a banquet
of consequences." True, except you will be sitting there, paying my bills.
My generation has been very
"liberal" with your money. We have been good neighbors but bad ancestors.
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